🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|