How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.